Dictionary Definition
forecast n : a prediction about how something (as
the weather) will develop [syn: prognosis]
Verb
1 predict in advance [syn: calculate]
3 indicate by signs; "These signs bode bad news"
[syn: bode, portend, auspicate, prognosticate, omen, presage, betoken, foreshadow, augur, foretell, prefigure, predict]
User Contributed Dictionary
English
Pronunciation
 /'foɻkɑst/
Translations
estimate future conditions
 Afrikaans: voorspel
 Dutch: voorspellen
 Finnish: ennustaa, ennakoida
 French: prévoir
 German: vorhersagen, prognostizieren
 Indonesian: ramal, meramal, mengira, memperkirakan
 Italian: prevedere
 Japanese: 予想する (よそうする, yosōsuru)
 Norwegian: forutsi, predikere
 Spanish: predecir. pronosticar
 Swedish: förutsäga, förutse
Noun
 An estimation.
 A prediction of
the weather.

 What's the forecast for tomorrow?

Translations
estimation
 Afrikaans: voorspelling
 Czech: předpověď
 Finnish: ennuste, ennakkoarvio
 French: prévision
 German: Schätzung
 Spanish: pronóstico, previsión
 Swedish: förhandsberäkning , utsikt
weather prediction
 Afrikaans: weervoorspelling
 Czech: předpověď
 Finnish: sääennuste
 French: prévision,prévision météorologique,prévision météo
 German: Wettervorhersage, Vorhersage
 Swedish: väderprognos , prognos
 ttbc Indonesian: ramalan
 ttbc Italian: previsione
 ttbc Japanese: 予想
Extensive Definition
Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown
situations. Prediction is a
similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of
time
series, crosssectional
or longitudinal
data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in
hydrology, the terms
"forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates
of values at certain specific future times, while the term
"prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number
of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to
forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of
Customer
Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for
manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also
sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both
statistical forecasting and a consensus process.
Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of
timeseries data.
Categories of forecasting methods
Time series methods
Time series
methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future
outcomes.
Causal / econometric methods
Some forecasting methods use the assumption that
it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might
influence the variable that is being forecast. For example, sales
of umbrellas might be associated with weather conditions. If the
causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can
be made and used in the forecast.
 Regression analysis using linear regression or nonlinear regression
 Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
 Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
 e.g. BoxJenkins
Judgemental methods
Judgemental forecasting methods incorporate
intuitive judgements, opinions and probability estimates.
Other methods
Forecasting accuracy
The forecast error is the difference between the
actual value and the forecast value for the corresponding
period.
\ E_t = Y_t  F_t
where E is the forecast error at period t, Y is
the actual value at period t, and F is the forecast for period
t.
Measures of aggregate error:
Please note that the business forecasters and
demand planners in the industry refer to the PMAD as the MAPE,
although they compute this volume weighted MAPE. Difference between
MAPE and WMAPE is explained in
Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy
See also
Applications of forecasting
Forecasting has application in many
situations:
 Supply chain management
 Weather forecasting, Flood forecasting and Meteorology
 Transport planning and Transportation forecasting
 Economic forecasting
 Technology forecasting
 Earthquake prediction
 Land use forecasting
 Product forecasting
 Player and team performance in sports
 Telecommunications forecasting
External links
 Forecasting Principles: "Evidencebased forecasting"
 [http://http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc4.htm Introduction to Time series Analysis (Engineering Statistics Handbook)]  A practical guide to Time series analysis and forecasting
 Time Series Analysis
 Applied Forecasting: news on forecasting
 Global Forecasting with IFs
See also
References
 Turchin, P., 2007. Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5484010020
forecast in Simple English:
Forecasting
Synonyms, Antonyms and Related Words
accounting, actuarial
prediction, adumbrate,
analysis, anticipate, anticipation, apocalypse, arrange, augur, augury, automatic electronic
navigation, braking,
calculate, calculation, cast, cast a horoscope, cast a
nativity, computation, concert, conclude, conjecture, contemplation, contrive, coordination, cut out,
design, devise, discretion, divine, dope, dope out, dowse for water,
envisagement,
envisionment, fact
distribution, farseeingness, farsightedness, figure, forebode, foreboding, forecasting, forecasts, foreglance, foregleam, foreglimpse, forehandedness, foreknown, foresee, foreseeing, foreseen, foreshowing, foreshown, foresight, foresightedness,
foretell, foretelling, foretold, forewarn, forewarning, fortunetell,
frame, gather, guess, guesswork, hariolate, improbability, infer, inspection, intend, lay plans, longsightedness, looking
ahead, make a prediction, make a prognosis, make a projection, make
a prophecy, make arrangements, manipulation, methodize, nonlinear
calibrations, omen,
organize, output
measurement, plan, plan
ahead, portend, prearrange, predict, predicted, prediction, prefiguration, prefigure, prefigurement, prefiguring, preparation, prepublication, presage, presaged, presaging, presentiment, preshowing, presignifying, preview, prevision, probability, processing, prognosis, prognosticate, prognostication,
program, project, promise, prophecy, prophesied, prophesy, prophesying, prospect, prospection, prospectus, providence, provision, prudence, rationalize, read palms,
read tea leaves, read the future, readiness, record keeping,
sagacity, schedule, schematize, set up, shape, soothsay, speculate, speculation, statistical
prediction, steering,
supersonic flow detection, surmise, systematize, tell fortunes,
tell the future, vaticinate, vaticination, weird, work out, work
up